HK Residential Series (Part I of IV)

2012 is a Good Year to Marry; Housing Demand Up

    *   Our four-day series tackles special topics in HK’s residential segment — We’re taking a break from writing company research to offer a broader view of the market in areas where investors seldom pay attention. This first issue of our four-part series examines the effects of an auspicious year for marriage on domestic demand.

*  2012 is a special year on the Lunar Calendar — In Chinese Feng Shui, the 2012 Dragon year is a good year for marriage, as it has “double springs and an intercalary month” (雙春兼閏月). A leap year with an extra month means two Springs, which represents “Yang”, men and offspring. More people tend to marry in these special years. .

* Marriages rose 12% YoY in good years versus 1% YoY in other years — Since 2000, we have seen four good years for marriage – 2001, 2004, 2006 and 2009. Marriages increased at a 12% rate in these years and 1% in the other years. Overall since 2000 marriages grew at a 5% CAGR. Obviously, people prefer to marry in the good years.

* Home prices rose 14% YoY in the good years versus 2% YoY in others — The Hong Kong residential price index shows a similar pattern. Home prices rose at a 6% CAGR since 2000, but they climbed at an average 14% in good years, while averaging 2% in the other years.

* Marriage drives household formation, making 2012 a good year for housing demand — Organic household formation is a product of new marriages. With an estimated 60,000 registered marriages likely in 2012, structural demand for homes should rise. This should lead to rising housing prices since home supply will remain tight in the near term.

* Buy Developers — We believe HK developer stocks are pricing in a very tough operating environment, including rising mortgage rates, falling home prices, and poor sales. If any of these parameters positively surprise the market, it could trigger a re-rating. We reiterate our preference for developers, with SHKP, Sino Land, Cheung Kong, and K Wah as our top picks.

From Botox to Boom?

Listening to the news and reading the papers over the recent crisis has produced many a, ‘Botox required,’ furrowed brow. Added to that the recent announcement of the intended 60% mortgage, shouldn’t all of us with any interest in property, be making a beeline to the nearest plastic surgeon?

Well, so far so good, we have avoided the rollercoaster peaks and troughs Hong Kong’s property market has been famous for. In fact the canny and the well advised are still in pocket and sitting pretty.

An area that seems to have weathered the storm well is Discovery Bay. Disco Bay to those that love or loath it has seen quite a transformation over the years. No longer can comparisons to, ‘The Truman Show,’ or, ‘Stepford Wives,’ be warranted. These days, both Central and the Airport are accessible within 25 minutes. Top this with the planned Taxi access; it will be one of the best connected residential areas of Hong Kong.

Property prices in the area have remained stable and have in fact experienced an upward trend overall. Headland Homes, a Real Estate Agency in Discovery Bay foresees it’s property is on the rise. “The foundations are already laid with excellent transport links. The unique luxury of membership to two Club Houses, with no debenture, or waiting list. Numerous shops, bars and great restaurants. For families there are two international schools, with the choice of the International Baccalaureate and English curriculums,” says Christine King, Director of Headland Homes. “Add to this the planned Taxi access, the imminent completion of a second plaza, shopping mall and hotel; Discovery Bay can only become a more popular place to be.”

Headland Homes’, clients fall under the, ‘canny and well advised,’ mentioned above. “ We don’t have a crystal ball or any sort of sixth sense, just a firm market knowledge and a want to do the best by our clients,” says Christine. “Our main priority has always been offering our clients the best service possible. My agents always strive to do their utmost, going above and beyond sealing the deal. This has earned us an excellent reputation, with Landlords, buyers and tenants.”

So, what advice could we expect if we were a client of Headland Homes? Here are a few of their top tips:

Landlords – Don’t go Sole Agency. Short term you may get a better rate of agency commission, but you will seriously restrict the amount of potential viewings. Long term this will result in your property being on the market for longer, the cost of which will outweigh the saving made on the agency commission.

Buyers – Buy the worst house on the best street. You can always buy a new kitchen or a new bathroom, but you will never be able to buy that view.

Tenants – Understand your lease before signing. There are no standard tenancy agreements in Hong Kong, so make sure you understand every clause within yours before signing. It’s your Agent’s duty to explain anything you don’t understand.

As an example of going above and beyond sealing the deal, Headland Homes would like to offer our readers a free article with advice on whatever your position in the property market. Simply visit their website www.headlandhomes.hk and request, ‘Top tips,’ via the contact us page.